Non-farm Employment Change was forecast to show 238,000 new jobs created. Actual numbers is just 175,000. Average Hourly Earnings were expected to show an increase of 0.3%. Wages have increased just 0.2%. The Unemployment Rate has not remained at 3.8%. It has moved back to 3.9%.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is still active and uses various tools to strengthen the Yen. Namely, see the sharp sudden moves of the rate down that cannot be observed on other pairs with the USD. Those are suspected to be BoJ interventions and policy comments that are moving the rate down. The BoJ appears to have started to push the pair down since it approached 160.00.
Economic Calendar
During the week, there is nothing notable that could move the markets via an adjustment of the value of the US Dollar. Some might look at the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey results. However, our analysts can barely recall when this data set caused a significant move.
USD/JPY hourly chart analysis
On May 3rd, the pair had declined to 152.00, before retracing upwards and testing the resistance zone at 152.75/153.00. A resumption of the decline is bound to eventually look for support in the major 150.00 mark, before further downside is possible.On the other hand, a recovery of the Dollar against the Yen is set to face resistance at 153.50, 154.00, 154.50 and the descending hourly simple moving averages. Higher above, expect all round levels to act as resistance and as they are passed, as support.
Hourly Chart
USD/JPY daily chart's review
The daily candle chart shows that the rate has broken the junior channel down pattern to the downside. Support is found in the 2022 high level and the 50-day simple moving average. Further below, we have marked levels that had an impact throughout the pair's surge in 2024. These levels are expected to act as support together with the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages.From a broader scale, the rate might continue downwards until the Bank of Japan sees the Japanese currency as strong enough. It could coincide that the momentum stops at a combination of a moving average and a prior notable level like the 150.00 mark.
Daily chart
After the bank events and actions, the traders were long, as 75% of volume was in bullish positions. Pending orders were 67% to buy. Dukascopy traders had the opinion that the Bank of Japan cannot stop the market and the Yen will fall.
After the US data was released, opinion changed. On May 3rd, after the US employment data release, Dukascopy traders were 58% short and orders were 72% to buy. It appears that a small majority had went short, but they had close by orders to close those positions and go back long again, if the situation changes.