Non-farm Employment Change was forecast to show 238,000 new jobs created. Actual numbers is just 175,000. Average Hourly Earnings were expected to show an increase of 0.3%. Wages have increased just 0.2%. The Unemployment Rate has not remained at 3.8%. It has moved back to 3.9%.
The EUR/USD in theory should surge and continue to surge until new data is released. However, it was spotted that after the fundamental event move, the pair encountered resistance near 1.0800 and retraced. The retracement resulted in the rate looking for support at 1.0740/1.0750.
Economic Calendar Analysis
During the week, there is nothing notable that could move the markets via an adjustment of the value of the US Dollar. Some might look at the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey results. However, our analysts can barely recall when this data set caused a significant move.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
A resumption of the Euro's surge against the US Dollar is bound to face the 1.0800 mark and the weekly simple pivot points that are spread out up until the 1.0900 mark. If the surge progresses, the 1.0900 mark would eventually also act as resistance. Meanwhile, note the early April high level range at 1.0875/1.0885, which stopped an attempted surge. In addition, the 1.0850 level has shown to be capable of acting as support and resistance.On the other hand, a decline below 1.0740 is set to look for support in the ascending 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, prior to the pair reaching the 1.0675/1.0700 range taht has acted as support and resistance. Further below, note the 1.0650 level that provided support at the start of the month. Further below, the 1.0600 level and the low level zone just above it will impact the EUR/USD.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate faces additional resistance in the form of the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages. After the employment data release, the 50 and 200-day SMAs were pierced. Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA held.Above the moving averages note the upper trend line of the descending channel pattern. From a technical viewpoint it should force the rate down.
However, the combination of the fundamental events that we have had indicates that the Fed could return to considering rate cuts during this year. A change in the underlying fundamentals would force the rate to break the pattern and establish a new one. In this case scenario the moving averages would also turn into support.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Dukascopy traders are long
After the Fed events and the release of the US employment data, Dukascopy Bank SA clients were 55% bullish as that amount of open position volume was in long positions.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 50% to buy and to sell.
It was previously observed that the sentiment is more bullish when the pair experiences a short term surge. Namely, there are traders that take the swings upwards and others that are holding for longer term, expecting a broader surge.